Upsets & Cinderellas
Every tournament upset since 1985, ranked and analyzed
Total Upsets
722
Upset Rate
28.0%
Biggest Upset
16v1
Maryland-Baltimore County 2018
Cinderella Runs
30
7+ seeds, 2+ wins
Upset Frequency by Round
First Round Matchup History
1vs16
162-2
1.2% upset rate
2vs15
153-11
6.7% upset rate
3vs14
141-23
14.0% upset rate
4vs13
131-33
20.1% upset rate
5vs12
106-58
35.4% upset rate
6vs11
100-64
39.0% upset rate
7vs10
101-63
38.4% upset rate
8vs9
77-87
53.0% upset rate
Cinderella Index
Improbability score: seed differential × round weight for each win. Higher = more unlikely.
| # | Team | Year | Seed | Deepest | Wins | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Villanova | 1985 | 8 | National Championship | 6 | 191 |
| 2 | Kentucky | 2014 | 8 | Final Four | 5 | 103 |
| 3 | LSU | 1986 | 11 | Elite Eight | 4 | 98 |
| 4 | George Mason | 2006 | 11 | Elite Eight | 4 | 83 |
| 5 | UCLA | 2021 | 11 | Elite Eight | 4 | 76 |
| 6 | Virginia Commonwealth | 2011 | 11 | Elite Eight | 4 | 74 |
| 7 | Connecticut | 2014 | 7 | National Championship | 6 | 69 |
| 8 | Saint Peter's | 2022 | 15 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 65 |
| 9 | North Carolina State | 2024 | 11 | Elite Eight | 4 | 61 |
| 10 | Xavier | 2017 | 11 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 48 |
| 11 | LSU | 1987 | 10 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 40 |
| 12 | Kent State | 2002 | 10 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 40 |
| 13 | Davidson | 2008 | 10 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 40 |
| 14 | Wichita State | 2013 | 9 | Elite Eight | 4 | 40 |
| 15 | North Carolina | 2022 | 8 | Final Four | 5 | 38 |
| 16 | Wisconsin | 2000 | 8 | Elite Eight | 4 | 35 |
| 17 | Missouri | 2002 | 12 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 35 |
| 18 | Syracuse | 2016 | 10 | Elite Eight | 4 | 35 |
| 19 | Oregon State | 2021 | 12 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 35 |
| 20 | Michigan State | 2015 | 7 | Elite Eight | 4 | 34 |
| 21 | South Carolina | 2017 | 7 | Elite Eight | 4 | 34 |
| 22 | Loyola Marymount | 1990 | 11 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 33 |
| 23 | Temple | 2001 | 11 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 33 |
| 24 | Florida State | 2018 | 9 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 32 |
| 25 | Florida Atlantic | 2023 | 9 | Elite Eight | 4 | 32 |
| 26 | Iowa | 2026 | 9 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 32 |
| 27 | Texas | 1990 | 10 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 31 |
| 28 | Gonzaga | 1999 | 10 | Sweet 16 | 3 | 31 |
| 29 | Butler | 2011 | 8 | Final Four | 5 | 31 |
| 30 | North Carolina | 2000 | 8 | Elite Eight | 4 | 30 |
Biggest Upsets
| Year | Round | Winner | Loser | Score | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | First Round | 16Maryland-Baltimore County | 1Virginia | 74-54 | +15 |
| 2023 | First Round | 16Fairleigh Dickinson | 1Purdue | 63-58 | +15 |
| 1991 | First Round | 15Richmond | 2Syracuse | 73-69 | +13 |
| 1993 | First Round | 15Santa Clara | 2Arizona | 64-61 | +13 |
| 1997 | First Round | 15Coppin State | 2South Carolina | 78-65 | +13 |
| 2001 | First Round | 15Hampton | 2Iowa State | 58-57 | +13 |
| 2012 | First Round | 15Lehigh | 2Duke | 75-70 | +13 |
| 2012 | First Round | 15Norfolk State | 2Missouri | 86-84 | +13 |
| 2013 | First Round | 15Florida Gulf Coast | 2Georgetown | 78-68 | +13 |
| 2016 | First Round | 15Middle Tennessee | 2Michigan State | 90-81 | +13 |
| 2021 | First Round | 15Oral Roberts | 2Ohio State | 75-72 | +13 |
| 2022 | First Round | 15Saint Peter's | 2Kentucky | 85-79 | +13 |
| 2023 | First Round | 15Princeton | 2Arizona | 59-55 | +13 |
| 2022 | Sweet 16 | 15Saint Peter's | 3Purdue | 67-64 | +12 |
| 1986 | First Round | 14Arkansas-Little Rock | 3Notre Dame | 90-83 | +11 |
| 1986 | First Round | 14Cleveland State | 3Indiana | 83-79 | +11 |
| 1987 | First Round | 14Austin Peay | 3Illinois | 68-67 | +11 |
| 1988 | First Round | 14Murray State | 3North Carolina State | 78-75 | +11 |
| 1989 | First Round | 14Siena | 3Stanford | 80-78 | +11 |
| 1990 | First Round | 14Northern Iowa | 3Missouri | 74-71 | +11 |
| 1991 | First Round | 14Xavier | 3Nebraska | 89-84 | +11 |
| 1992 | First Round | 14East Tennessee State | 3Arizona | 87-80 | +11 |
| 1995 | First Round | 14Weber State | 3Michigan State | 79-72 | +11 |
| 1995 | First Round | 14Old Dominion | 3Villanova | 89-81 | +11 |
| 1997 | First Round | 14Chattanooga | 3Georgia | 73-70 | +11 |
| 1998 | First Round | 14Richmond | 3South Carolina | 62-61 | +11 |
| 1999 | First Round | 14Weber State | 3North Carolina | 76-74 | +11 |
| 2005 | First Round | 14Bucknell | 3Kansas | 64-63 | +11 |
| 2006 | First Round | 14Northwestern State | 3Iowa | 64-63 | +11 |
| 2010 | First Round | 14Ohio | 3Georgetown | 97-83 | +11 |
| 2013 | First Round | 14Harvard | 3New Mexico | 68-62 | +11 |
| 2014 | First Round | 14Mercer | 3Duke | 78-71 | +11 |
| 2015 | First Round | 14Georgia State | 3Baylor | 57-56 | +11 |
| 2015 | First Round | 14Alabama-Birmingham | 3Iowa State | 60-59 | +11 |
| 2016 | First Round | 14Stephen F. Austin | 3West Virginia | 70-56 | +11 |
| 2021 | First Round | 14Abilene Christian | 3Texas | 53-52 | +11 |
| 2024 | First Round | 14Oakland | 3Kentucky | 80-76 | +11 |
| 1986 | Elite Eight | 11LSU | 1Kentucky | 59-57 | +10 |
| 2006 | Elite Eight | 11George Mason | 1Connecticut | 86-84 | +10 |
| 2011 | Elite Eight | 11Virginia Commonwealth | 1Kansas | 71-61 | +10 |
| 2021 | Elite Eight | 11UCLA | 1Michigan | 51-49 | +10 |
| 1985 | First Round | 13Navy | 4LSU | 78-55 | +9 |
| 1986 | Sweet 16 | 11LSU | 2Georgia Tech | 70-64 | +9 |
| 1987 | First Round | 13Xavier | 4Missouri | 70-69 | +9 |
| 1987 | First Round | 13Southwest Missouri State | 4Clemson | 65-60 | +9 |
| 1988 | First Round | 13Richmond | 4Indiana | 72-69 | +9 |
| 1989 | First Round | 13Middle Tennessee State | 4Florida State | 97-83 | +9 |
| 1991 | First Round | 13Penn State | 4UCLA | 74-69 | +9 |
| 1992 | First Round | 13Louisiana-Lafayette | 4Oklahoma | 87-83 | +9 |
| 1993 | First Round | 13Southern | 4Georgia Tech | 93-78 | +9 |