Seed Analysis
How each seed has performed historically in the NCAA Tournament
Win % by Seed and Round
Click a seed to see notable upsets and details below
| Seed | R1 | R2 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Champ | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99% | 86% | 79% | 62% | 62% | 64% | 80% |
| 2 | 93% | 69% | 70% | 45% | 42% | 36% | 71% |
| 3 | 86% | 61% | 49% | 43% | 61% | 36% | 65% |
| 4 | 80% | 61% | 31% | 60% | 27% | 50% | 61% |
| 5 | 65% | 53% | 21% | 75% | 44% | 0% | 53% |
| 6 | 61% | 48% | 38% | 17% | 67% | 50% | 51% |
| 7 | 62% | 29% | 34% | 30% | 33% | 100% | 47% |
| 8 | 47% | 21% | 56% | 67% | 67% | 25% | 41% |
| 9 | 53% | 10% | 67% | 33% | 0% | — | 39% |
| 10 | 38% | 40% | 36% | 11% | 0% | — | 37% |
| 11 | 39% | 44% | 36% | 60% | 0% | — | 40% |
| 12 | 35% | 38% | 9% | 0% | — | — | 33% |
| 13 | 20% | 18% | 0% | — | — | — | 19% |
| 14 | 14% | 9% | 0% | — | — | — | 13% |
| 15 | 7% | 36% | 25% | 0% | — | — | 9% |
| 16 | 1% | 0% | — | — | — | — | 1% |
Seed Win % Overview
1548-137
80.0% Win27 titles
2385-159
70.8% Win5 titles
3302-160
65.4% Win4 titles
4257-162
61.3% Win2 titles
5187-164
53.3% Win4 F4s
6172-163
51.3% Win1 titles
7145-163
47.1% Win1 titles
8113-163
40.9% Win1 titles
9104-164
38.8% Win
1098-164
37.4% Win
11108-164
39.7% Win
1282-164
33.3% Win
1339-164
19.2% Win
1425-164
13.2% Win
1516-164
8.9% Win
162-164
1.2% Win
First Round Matchup History
1vs16
162-2
1.2% upset rate
2vs15
153-11
6.7% upset rate
3vs14
141-23
14.0% upset rate
4vs13
131-33
20.1% upset rate
5vs12
106-58
35.4% upset rate
6vs11
100-64
39.0% upset rate
7vs10
101-63
38.4% upset rate
8vs9
77-87
53.0% upset rate
Expected Bracket Path
How a #1 seed typically progresses through the tournament.
| Round | Appearances | Wins | Win % | Avg Opp Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Round | 164 | 162 | 98.8% | #16 |
| Second Round | 162 | 139 | 85.8% | #8.5 |
| Sweet 16 | 139 | 110 | 79.1% | #5.8 |
| Elite Eight | 110 | 68 | 61.8% | #3.9 |
| Final Four | 52 | 42 | 80.8% | #3.3 |
| National Championship | 32 | 27 | 84.4% | #2.9 |